Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

095
FXUS63 KIND 301934
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms this evening with damaging winds, tornadoes, and
hail all as potential hazards.

- Highest threat for severe weather along and north of I-70 is from
3 PM to 7 PM EDT

- Second round of storms from 5 PM to 9 PM along and south of I-70
with a higher potential for tornadoes.

- Dry and Cooler Monday and Tuesday.

- Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

- Damp pattern through Thursday through Sunday with chances for
heavy rains resulting in flooding, particularly across southern
central Indiana. Minor to moderate river flooding possible.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

While the main focus is currently in the northwestern portions of
central Indiana with the bowing segment producing both widespread
damaging winds and weak circulations, the threat for areas to the
south is not over yet as we still expect multiple rounds of storms.

Showers to the south of Indianapolis are struggling to grow upscale
with ACARs soundings showing a weakly stable layer over Indianapolis
right now. Additional development is expected over the next few
hours which will impact areas along and south of I-70 with timing
closer to 5-6 PM per the latest WoFS run. Wind remains the primary
threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

The well messaged severe weather event is underway today across the
Midwest with storms approaching the IL/IN border as of the writing
of this discussion. Further updates will be provided throughout this
evening in the Mesoscale Discussion section above.

.MESOSCALE TALK 230 PM...

While the synoptic set up is well described in the previous
discussion below, this portion of the short term discussion will
focus on the evening hours as storms push through Indiana.

Latest satellite imagery shows a strengthening line of storms just
ahead of a cold front across Central Illinois with an area of
clearing just out ahead of it. 17z Lincoln RAOB soundings shows
steepening low level lapse rates, SB CAPE over 1200 j/kg, and 0-3km
shear at 45 kts. An EML above 700 mb is still present, however the
mid levels have cooled enough that convection is able to break that
CAP. ACARs soundings closer to IND show that the CAP has broken with
drier mid and upper levels than what RAP/HRRR guidance depicts...
this could enhance the hail threat in discrete cells, however weaker
upper level winds may limit the severe hail potential overall. Also
want to mention that observations ahead of this line of storms show
slightly backed winds at 170-180 deg rather than 190-210 as many hi-
res models depict. This could locally enhance the tornado risk
within the main line of storms and with any cells that form out of
it.

Based on Radar and satellite trends in Illinois, a cold pool is
forming with a mix of multicell and discrete cells within the
cluster. At the moment, damaging winds of 60-80 mph is the main
threat with most storms with tornadoes as a secondary threat.
Tornado threat is highest in any discrete, organized, supercells
ahead of the line. Radar trends also show very well defined rear
inflow jets with numerous cells exhibiting bowing structures,
further raising confidence in the damaging wind threat. The highest
threat for severe weather over the next several hours is along and
north of the I-70 corridor, including the Indy metro area...however
it appears that Lafayette to Kokomo and points north could get the
brunt of the developing storms in Illinois. Lower confidence exists
in the development along the southern flank of this complex, but
will be watching that closely over the next several hours.

This complex of storms is ahead of the main cold front with
satellite imagery showing additional destabilization and storms
along it and behind the first round. THe potential is there for
multiple rounds of severe weather today with the first round moving
through Central and Northern Indiana within the 3 PM to 7 PM
timeframe and a secondary round coming in from the southwest right
on its heals pushing into Southwest and South Central Indiana after
the 5pm timeframe. This potential second round could be just as
severe as the first and will likely impact areas along and south of
the I-70 corridor. This second round could have a better tornado
potential as latest hi-res guidance shows a better potential for
discrete cells and better low level shear and helicity values. Keep
checking back for further updates throughout the evening.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 AM THIS MORNING...

SYNOPTIC SETUP

A strengthening upper trough will move into the western Great Lakes
by early evening. At the surface, a surface low will move into lower
Michigan, with a strong cold front associated with it. Plentiful
moisture will be continue to be pumped into the area, helped along
by near 50kt winds at 850mb.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL

Strong forcing with the system will tap into available instability
(which will exist despite clouds/scattered rain today) to produce
convection. Given the strong wind fields present with this system,
shear will be sufficient for convection to be organized.

Shear vectors are more parallel to the surface cold front, so would
expect mainly linear convection to prevail. That being said, there
could still be cells ahead of the line, especially across the
western forecast area earlier in the event. These could exhibit
supercell characteristics.

Given the above, feel that the primary threat will be damaging wind
gusts across central Indiana this afternoon into early to mid
evening hours. Large hail is also possible, again especially west
where individual cells are possible.

Tornadoes will be a threat as well, both with the individual cells
and along the linear convection with meso convective vorticies. The
highest threat for tornadoes looks to be in the southern forecast
area where favored parameters are highest.

The flash flooding threat for individual storms is low given the
expected speed of the convection. However, will have to watch for
the potential of training storms.

Remainder of the Evening into the Overnight...

Rain chances will diminish during the night as the cold front moves
through, and cooler and drier air arrives behind it. Low
temperatures will be in the lower 40s most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

More Active weather expected this week.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night -

In the wake of the departing low pressure , much cooler, Canadian
high pressure will settle across the region with cooler northerly
winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly through Tuesday. This
will result in dry but cool weather, with below normal temperatures
with highs near 50.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night -

More active weather will be expected along with chances for severe
weather during this time. Strong low pressure will be moving from
the plains states to the Great Lakes, keeping central Indiana within
the warm sector amid mild and humid southwesterly flow. the strong
southwest flow aloft also suggests several embedded short wave
within the flow aloft providing forcing. Meanwhile forecast
soundings show CAPE available also, providing additional instability.
Thus Thunderstorms will continue to remain in the forecast for
Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Highs within the warm sector should
reach the 70s, well above normal.

Thursday through Sunday -

Active weather is expected to persist through this time. Models
suggest late this week that a deepening upper trough over the
western CONUS will continue to provide southwest flow aloft over they
southern plains and into Central Indiana. Within this flow, a steady
series of embedded short waves looks to pass through Indiana and the
Ohio Valley, providing forcing. Within the lower levels a left over
west to east frontal boundary looks also to be lingering near the
Ohio River and KY. This will place central Indiana on the cooler side
of the boundary, but this will not prevent rainfall across Indiana.
Flooding possibilities will come into play as this situation
develops as a favorable set-up for rainfall, possibly heavy at
times, each day. A caveat, should the boundary set-up farther south,
central Indiana may be spared from the heavier rainfall. A farther
north set-up would result in more of central Indiana being under the
rainfall threat.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions expected through most of the TAf period.
- Strong thunderstorms expected this afternoon.
- Gusty winds to around 25kt. Higher in storms.

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the TAF period.

HRRR suggests convection developing over IL will push toward the TAF
sites by mid afternoon and pass across the TAF sites through 00Z-
02Z. As storms impact the TAF sites IFR conditions will be possible
wind gusts in excess of 40 knts.

Used TEMPO groups to narrow down best possible windows for storms.

Overnight, northwest flow will continue along with trapped lower
level moisture amid cold air advection. Thus continued MVFR Cigs
overnight and into Monday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...White
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Puma